CEDX

Irwin Kellner's Economic Outlook

This past Friday, local economics maven, Hofstra Professor, and Marketwatch.com icon Irwin Kellner came to LIMBA, to give us his outlook on the national economy, and Long Island in particular.  The main subject of his talk revolved around housing prices, and an explanation of why, in his view, the housing market has topped out for this cycle.

Starting with the national economy, we're at middle age for the current expansion, and energy pricing, plus the interest rate rise is doing a good job of putting the brakes on.  The household negative savings rate has not been seen since 1933.  He sees growth slowing to 0% by the end of the year.  Interest rate hikes are predicted to continue for 2 or 3 more quarters.

One of the brilliant things about LIMBA is, for the price of a membership ($150/year) and $10 a breakfast, (or $20 a breakfast for non-members) you can listen to, and ask questions of people like Dr. Kellner, who gave us a 20-minute tutorial, with customized data, on the Long Island economy and it near term prospects.  We covered housing prices and inventory, sales tax revenue, and jobs data for both counties.  In the Q & A section, we got his explanation of what the measured unemployment rate is, and why the rate of people voluntarily quitting their jobs is a better measure of how good or bad the labor market is.

Dr. Kellner was also gracious enough to distribute a few invitations to Linda Fairstein's upcoming lecture at the  Scott Skodneck Business Development Center at Hofstra

The Case for keeping the Treasurer's office in Suffolk County

At our LIMBA meeting on Friday morning we had the pleasure of hearing from Suffolk County's Treasurer, Angie M. Carpenter on the subject of what her office does and why it is important for the county to continue to have an independent Treasurer.  Angie opened up with a little of her background as a small business career before she went into public service, which is focused on making Long Island a place where we live, not leave.  After term limits pushed her out of the Legislature, she arrived at the Treasurer's office expecting to find a laid-back, slow paced office, but found herself with a dedicated, motivated staff.  She explained the different divisions of the Treasurer's office, their functions and how they interface with Suffolk's town Tax Recievers and the public.

Having laid the foundation of the function for the office, she presented her case for maintaining the Treasurer's office, by noting how the major bond rating agencies liked the way that this was constructed, and pointing out that after the Orange County, CA's bankruptcy debacle, they changed their model to Suffolk's style, with the independent Comptroller and Treasurer.  Presently, the Treasurer is an elected post, which serves to maintain that independent watchdog status over the County's finances.  She also followed up her explanation of her office's  function with her view of what the savings to the county would be if her office was eliminated.  The only jobs that would go away were her's and a few deputy positions, because the functions that the Treasurer's office performs are not currently duplicated in the Comptroller's office.

She also reiterated that there is strong support in the Legislature for maintaining the status quo, and recounting a story that affirms her conviction that she believes in the process and structure of the office.  A legislator said that they might support the move to eliminate the position, but would want it to take effect after her term was up, because she was duly elected, and to not serve out her term would be changing the rules of the game in midstream.  Angie was willing to say that if it is the right thing to do to eliminate her office, then do it now, to save the money, rather than simply playing out the string until it's end.  She strongly believes in this, and her independence was shown in the Q & A session.  One of our members fired a question asking her position on the county keeping the difference in the sale price and taxes owed on a delinquent property, and used the example of what happened to a family in Amityville last year where the difference was quite substantial, and it was a story that tugged at everybody's heartstrings.  Instead of pandering to the crowd and agreeing that this was an egregious example of greed by the county, Angie explained that some procedures were dictated by state law, and spoke to the additional costs associated with seizing a property and auctioning it off, and keeping the consequences of tax delinquency in the forefront of the public's mind.

As always, it was another jump start to our Friday morning, with a substantial breakfast for the mind and an exchange with an important public official on a timely subject.

Good food comes to Ronkonkoma

Thankfully, some good breakfast and lunch food has come to the Ronkonkoma - Bohemia area.  Don Ravella's Garage eatery has opened up a branch called The Pit Stop, on Vets Highway, just a couple of blocks away from from HD's offices.  Free delivery up until 2PM, and I would highly recommend it for folks needing to pickup dinner on the way home.  My personal favorite is the spinach salad.  I keep telling Don he should setup his website so folks can click in an order from their desks, but until he sees the light, you have to call or fax your order in:
Phone 631-585-6767 | Fax 631-585-6774

Mr. Nadler goes to Ronkonkoma

Congressman Jerrold Nadler visited LIMBA this past friday, to inform us amateur policy wonks about the project to build the Brooklyn to New Jersey rail freight tunnel.  The Congressman, who is fond of saying his district runs from Nathan's to Zabar's, has been a champion of mass transit for his entire career in Congress and the NYS Legislature, opened his remarks with a recounting of how the opening of the Erie Canal lead to the explosive growth of the New York City region, due to it's becoming the lowest cost gateway to the interior of the country at the time.  The canal was followed by the Erie-Lackawanna railroad, which continued New York's rise.  However, we've stopped that innovation in transportation during the last half of the 20th century, and New York as a region has suffered for it.  The Congressman was quick to point out that the tunnel would not only benefit the city, but also Long Island.